Strategic Human Resources Planning 6th Edition – Test Bank

Complete Test Bank With Answers

 

 

Sample Questions Posted Below

 

Indicate whether the statement is true or false.

1. A regression analysis is a linear equation between a single causal variable and multiple dependent variables.

a. True

b. False

2. According to the textbook, typical estimates for scenario forecasting are organized into optimistic, realistic,

and pessimistic scenarios.

a. True

b. False

3. In the simple regression prediction model, X represents the independent variable.

a. True

b. False

4. If there are several dependent variables, then the regression is referred to as multivariate regression analysis.

a. True

b. False

5. Regression analysis is a very effective quantitative forecasting technique for all time horizons.

a. True

b. False

6. In an impact analysis, current trends are analyzed by a panel of experts to predict future HR demand.

a. True

b. False

7. In a simple regression, Y is the independent variable.

a. True

b. False

8. Scenario forecasting is based on the premise that, because the future course of events is not known with

certainty, it is necessary to develop several plausible sets of outcomes.

a. True

b. False

9. In a simple regression equation, there is an assumption of linearity between the independent and dependent

variables.

a. True

b. False

10. In a trend analysis, it is necessary to extrapolate data related to historical changes.

a. True

b. False

11. The Delphi technique is a quantitative method for deriving detailed assumptions of long-run HR demand.

a. True

b. False12. HR demand refers to the future need for the firm’s skills requirements, the types of jobs and the number of

positions that must be filled for the firm to implement its strategy.

a. True

b. False

13. Unlike trend analysis, impact analysis relies on subjective, but expert, judgments.

a. True

b. False

14. Trend analyses are complex since they require the analysis of multiple variables.

a. True

b. False

15. The demand for human capital resources is determined by the strategic and operational requirements of the

firm or business unit.

a. True

b. False

16. According to the article entitled “Projecting Labour Demand in Canada,” management occupations will feel

the most intense pressure from immigration.

a. True

b. False

17. HR budgets are a qualitative method of HR demand forecasting that estimates the number and types of

personnel required by the organization.

a. True

b. False

18. The first step in the nominal group technique is to select the experts.

a. True

b. False

19. A staffing table forecasts the total HR demand required for operational or short-run time periods.

a. True

b. False

20. A ratio analysis is a quantitative method of projecting HR demand by analyzing the relationship between an

operational index and the number of employees required.

a. True

b. False

21. Multivariate regression and other similar modelling/programming models depend on large amounts of

reliable data.

a. True

b. False

22. Times series models use past data to predict future demand. They can range from very simple to highly

complex.

a. Trueb. False

23. Another name for the scenario forecast method is the projection forecast method.

a. True

b. False

24. Perceived status differences may influence how experts express their views when forecasting in face-to-face

groups.

a. True

b. False

25. A regression analysis is a form of time series design that uses the data from the current year (period) to

predict next year’s (period’s) demand, reflecting a linear relationship.

a. True

b. False

26. A deficiency of the Delphi technique is that the results cannot be verified statistically.

a. True

b. False

27. The last stage in the nominal group technique is a secret vote that determines the highest ranking for the

group’s HR demand solution.

a. True

b. False

28. In the Delphi method experts do not meet, but they do in the nominal group technique.

a. True

b. False

Indicate the answer choice that best completes the statement or answers the question.

29. How do the experts finally agree on a solution in the nominal group technique?

a. by defending their perspectives

b. by voting for the best estimate

c. by lobbying the other group members

d. by ranking the solutions with a secret vote

30. An organization wants to use a qualitative demand forecasting method. Which of the following is a

qualitative method?

a. trend analysis

b. nominal group technique

c. HR budget

d. staffing table

31. In a simple regression prediction model, what does B represent?

a. dependent variable

b. constant or intercept

c. slope of the linear relationship between X and Yd. independent variable

32. An organization wants to use a quantitative demand forecasting method. Which of the following is NOT a

quantitative method?

a. trend analysis

b. Delphi technique

c. regression analysis

d. staffing table

33. If you want to determine the total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run time periods, what

type of information should you gather?

a. staffing table

b. HR budget

c. impact analysis

d. envelope/scenario forecasts

34. What federal government agency provides expert information for labour demand forecasting?

a. National Occupational Classification

b. Citizenship and Immigration Canada

c. Conference Board of Canada

d. Statistics Canada

35. According to the textbook, when the Delphi technique was used to identify competencies for research chef,

which of the following was NOT a topic for consideration?

a. factors that differentiate successful from unsuccessful research chefs

b. years of experience for successful and unsuccessful research chefs

c. skills and knowledge needed to be a successful research chef

d. tasks that differentiate a successful research chef from an ordinary chef

36. Tim Hortons integrates digitized data from all the corporate functions, including marketing, operations,

finance, and HR, as well as information from social media sources such as Facebook and LinkedIn, and more.

What is this data called?

a. HR data

b. research data

c. big data

d. quantitative data

37. Why are assumptions necessary when implementing the steps of the nominal group technique?

a. to minimize the chance that expert estimates will be misinterpreted

b. to make sure that the group is not dominated by one expert estimate

c. to eliminate the necessity for experts to defend their estimates

d. to ensure the validity and confidentiality of the expert estimates

38. An organization wants to determine the total HR demand requirement for long-run time periods. What

would be the best way to gather this information?

a. use staffing tablesb. use an HR budget

c. use impact analysis

d. use scenario forecasts

39. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

What would be the most effective strategy to deal with the engineering shortages?

a. utilize job sharing arrangements

b. increase engineering school graduates

c. use flexible contract arrangements

d. use internal transfers

40. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

What would you call the process described in this scenario?

a. strategic human resource management

b. human resource planning

c. linking human resource management with strategic planning

d. human resource supply techniques41. What would be the first step in HR forecasting once an organization has identified its organizational goals,

objectives, and plans?

a. to examine data from a variety of perspectives

b. to determine the overall demand requirements for personnel (i.e., what staff are needed, when, and

where)

c. to assess in-house skills and other internal supply characteristics

d. to determine the net demand requirements that must be met from external environmental supply

sources

42. Which of the following is NOT considered a benefit of the nominal group technique?

a. supports brainstorming

b. lower costs and time

c. equal participation

d. reliable and valid

43. Which of the following is NOT typically considered to be an expert for HR forecasting?

a. union staff members

b. line employees

c. university researchers

d. business consultants

44. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

The situation described in this scenario can be referred to as a tight labour market. What occurs in a tight labour

market?

a. The supply of labour exceeds the demand for labour.

b. Labour supply and demand creates tension in the labour market.

c. The demand for labour exceeds the supply of labour.

d. Supply and demand create labour shortages.

45. What is the most common operational index used by organizations in a trend analysis?

a. sales level

b. units producedc. clients served

d. production hours

46. What stage in the nominal group technique would typically ask a question like, “What will ABC

Corporation’s demand for production workers be in the year 2017?”

a. select the experts

b. meet face to face

c. define the question

d. discuss demand estimates

47. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

What do the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey reports attempt to

do?

a. predict the future demand and supply for a wide variety of Canadian occupations

b. predict the future demand growth for a wide variety of Canadian occupations

c. estimate the future demand and supply for Canadian workers

d. predict the future demand and supply for Canadian engineering workers

48. What type of analysis presupposes that a linear relationship exists between sales and the number of

employees?

a. ratio

b. multivariate

c. trend

d. regression

49. The Oakland Athletics baseball team used statistical cause-and-effect models for HR planning. What do

cause-and-effect models assume?

a. that there is an ongoing relationship between independent and dependent variables

b. that the extrapolated trends will influence future supply and demand

c. that the time horizon used for the models is most conducive to short-term forecasts

d. that the subjective judgment of experts supports the forecasts50. An organization wants to determine its total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run time

periods. What would be the best way to gather this information?

a. use staffing tables

b. use Markov analysis

c. use impact analysis

d. use scenario forecasts

51. What would be two human resource qualitative forecasting demand techniques?

a. regression analysis and trend/ratio analysis techniques

b. extrapolation and transition matrices techniques

c. scenario planning and nominal group techniques

d. budget analysis and skills inventory techniques

52. In the Delphi technique, why do the experts NOT meet face-to-face?

a. They do not have the time.

b. They want to lower costs.

c. They worry about groupthink.

d. They lack communication expertise.

53. Typically, how is most of the expert information gathered using the Delphi technique?

a. interviews

b. discussion groups

c. teleconferencing

d. questionnaires

54. If HR specialists use multiple predictor estimates of the future demand for personnel based on a variety of

differing assumptions about how future events will unfold, what type of forecasting technique or analysis are

they using?

a. Delphi technique

b. nominal technique

c. impact analysis

d. scenario forecast

55. An organization is using multiple predictor estimates of the future demand for human resources based on a

variety of differing assumptions about how future events will unfold. What type of forecasting technique or

analysis is it using?

a. Delphi technique

b. nominal technique

c. impact analysis

d. scenario forecast

56. What would be two human resource quantitative forecasting demand techniques?

a. regression analysis and trend projection techniques

b. extrapolation and transition matrices techniques

c. indexation and replacement chart techniques

d. budget analysis and skills inventory techniques57. Which forecasting technique provides a long-run qualitative forecast where experts meet and give their

assessments about the future?

a. Delphi technique

b. critical incident technique

c. repatriation technique

d. nominal group technique

58. What type of analysis reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the demand for

labour?

a. correlation

b. multivariate

c. trend

d. regression

59. What method of estimating HR demand extrapolates historical organizational indices to forecast future

personnel needs?

a. trend analysis

b. ratio analysis

c. cohort analysis

d. impact analysis

60. Tiger Boots, a footwear retailer, is currently determining its HR demand using ratio analysis. What would be

a key operational index used by Tiger Boots in a ratio analysis?

a. sales level

b. human resources

c. clients served

d. production hours

61. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

The growth in demand for civil engineering occupations has been strong due to the rising needs associated with

the high number of retiring workers. Although countless challenges influence the demand for engineering

professionals, what is the primary cause of demand in this case?a. external factors

b. demographic factors

c. labour market factors

d. organizational factors

62. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate that

engineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

Indicators suggest that the demand for engineering occupations currently exceeds supply at the provincial and

national levels. What is this estimate of demand and supply called?

a. strategic human resource management

b. human resource planning

c. human resource estimating techniques

d. human resource forecasting techniques

63. When trying to forecast the number of employee hours required for work in a retail store during December,

the HR planner used last December’s ratio of total sales to total hours worked as the basis for an estimate for the

current year’s needs. What forecasting model is the HR planner using to predict future HR demand?

a. times series model

b. regression model

c. projection model

d. production model

64. Which forecasting technique would an organization use if it wanted to conduct a long-run qualitative

forecast in which experts meet and give their assessments about the future?

a. Delphi technique

b. critical incident technique

c. repatriation technique

d. nominal group technique

65. Canadian Engineering Shortages

According to a new Engineers Canada labour market projection report, there are currently labour shortages in

a number of engineering occupations, particularly civil, mechanical, electrical, and electronic engineers, as

well as a shortage of computer engineers at both the provincial and national levels. Occupation data sourced

from the Canadian National Household Survey and the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicate thatengineering occupations’ employment and wages are increasing faster than in other occupations.

Unemployment is very low, less than one percent for many engineering occupations, relative to historical data

and to other occupation data. Replacement demand for engineers will be particularly relevant over the next

decade as the baby boom generation retires. Economic activity is generating a stronger demand for engineers

in Western Canada than in Eastern Canada.

Out of the fourteen different engineering occupations, the forecast for civil engineers is particularly high. It is

projected that there will be an average of 2 500 job openings for civil engineers annually over the next five

years. Growth in industries that employ civil engineers will generate about 1 000 of these openings each year.

Another 1 500 of these job openings will be related to the replacement of retiring workers, given the high

average age of 48 years old for civil engineers.

What human resource technique is being used to gather the data for the Engineers Canada labour market

projection report?

a. human resource occupational planning

b. human resource Markov analysis

c. human resource audits

d. human resource forecasting

66. What do you call the observed relationship between the independent and dependent variables?

a. causal

b. direct

c. linear

d. indirect

67. What is another name for the dependent variable in the simple regression prediction model?

a. causal variable

b. target variable

c. linear variable

d. random variable

68. According to the textbook, what is one disadvantage of the Delphi technique?

a. groupthink

b. shyness

c. time and costs

d. communication

69. Which of the following demand forecasting methods is NOT a quantitative method?

a. trend analysis

b. Delphi technique

c. regression analysis

d. staffing table

70. What technique should be used if you want all the participants to have equal participation in the sessions and

to minimize dominance, personal attacks, and defensive behaviour?

a. Delphi technique

b. critical incident techniquec. repatriation technique

d. nominal group technique

71. In the Delphi technique, why does the project coordinator continue to issue questionnaires to the experts?

a. Current information has not been optimal, and so further information is required.

b. Additional information still needs to be gathered regarding the predetermined questions.

c. Information gathered to date has not led the group to make a consensual decision.

d. Current information is insufficient in some way that is required to make future supply estimates.

72. There are six steps associated with the Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting. What is the first step?

a. identify the experts, terms, and time horizon

b. issue the first round of questionnaires

c. select the experts

d. define and refine the issue or question

73. An organization wants to determine the total HR demand requirement for long-run time periods. What

would be the best way to gather this information?

a. use staffing tables

b. use movement analysis

c. use impact analysis

d. use scenario forecasts

74. Analyze Case Incident: “Canadian Engineering Shortages.” Using the information you know about

forecasting HR demand, what advice would you offer to Engineers Canada to address the replacement demand

for engineers over the next decade

75. Describe what an “expert” demand forecast is and list five different types of experts who could be involved.

Identify and describe two different types of expert forecasting methods.

76. What are some the advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi technique, where experts do NOT meet face-

to-face?

77. Describe how HR Budgets and staffing tables are applied in HR demand forecasting.

78. What is envelope/scenario forecasting? Describe some of its features.

79. Describe the process of scenario planning, including its strengths and limitations in determining HR

demand.

80. Describe trend analysis and outline the steps involved in conducting this forecasting method. What are the

most common operational indices used by organizations?Answer Key

1. False

2. True

3. True

4. False

5. False

6. False

7. False

8. True

9. True

10. True

11. False

12. True

13. True

14. False

15. True

16. False

17. False

18. False

19. True

20. True

21. True

22. True

23. False

24. True

25. False

26. True

27. True28. True

29. d

30. b

31. c

32. b

33. a

34. d

35. b

36. c

37. a

38. d

39. b

40. b

41. b

42. b

43. b

44. c

45. a

46. c

47. a

48. d

49. a

50. a

51. c

52. c

53. d

54. d

55. d56. a

57. d

58. c

59. a

60. a

61. b

62. b

63. a

64. d

65. d

66. a

67. b

68. c

69. b

70. d

71. c

72. d

73. d

74. The report includes provincial- and federal-level projections of supply and demand for engineers and serves

to highlight the continued importance of engineers to the Canadian economy. There is a large and growing need

to replace retiring engineers. This is particularly relevant for civil, mechanical, electrical/electronic, and

computer engineers. Interprovincial mobility and immigration may be important in filling the positions left by

retiring engineers. As a proactive strategy to deal with these shortages, Canadian universities, colleges, and

technical institutions can play a critical role in increasing the number of Canadian and international students

graduating with engineering degrees and technical diplomas, thereby creating new entrants to engineering

occupations. Federal government policies that streamline international immigration of engineers to meet future

workforce requirements may help.

NARR: Shortages

75. An expert forecast is a qualitative process for determining future labour requirements, a detailed process of

stating assumptions, considering potential organizational and environmental changes, and deriving a rationale to

support the numerical estimate. Different experts that can be involved in the process are:

∙

∙

∙

line managers

HR and business planning staffs

business consultants∙

∙

∙

∙

∙

financial analysts

university researchers

union staff members

industry spokespersons

federal, provincial, and local government staff (e.g., Human Resources Development Canada, Statistics

Canada)

Two different types of expert forecasting methods are the Delphi technique and the nominal group technique.

The Delphi technique is a carefully designed program of sequential, individual interrogations (usually

conducted through questionnaires) interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by the

other participants in previous rounds. Nominal group technique is a qualitative long-run forecasting technique

utilizing expert assessments. Groups of experts meet face-to-face to discuss their individual findings on a

specific issue and then silently vote or rank their findings on that issue.

76. Advantages include:

∙

It avoids problems associated with face-to-face groups: mainly, reluctance of individual experts to participate

because of shyness, perceived lower status or authority, perceived communications deficiencies, issues of

individual dominance, and groupthink.

∙

It serves as a great equalizer.

∙

It elicits valid feedback from all members.

∙

It can draw information from people located in a variety of geographical areas.

Disadvantages of this method include:

∙

∙

∙

∙

∙

Time and costs increase due to questionnaire series administered.

Results cannot be validated statistically.

It is dependent on individual knowledge and commitment of experts.

If experts are drawn from one professional field, their common professional training will guide them along a

single line of inquiry rather instead of pursuing more innovative courses of action.

If insufficient attention has been paid to developing criteria for the identification and selection of experts, the

personnel selected to derive the demand forecasts may lack sufficient expertise or information.

77. HR budgets are quantitative, operational, or short-run demand estimates that contain the number and types

of personnel required by the organization as a whole and for each sub-unit, division, or department.

∙

HR budgets are prepared by the HR staff in conjunction with line managers.

∙

They consider historical trend information, competitor staffing practices, industry and professional

associations, and Statistics Canada.

∙

They give a prediction or single estimate of future HR demand.

∙

The HR budget process produces a staffing table.

∙

Staffing tables have information related to specific operational assumptions (for example, increasing sales by

five percent over last year).

∙

Staffing tables present the total HR demand requirement for operational or short-run periods.

78. Envelope/scenario forecasting uses projections, or multiple-predictor estimates, of future HR demand for

personnel based on a variety of differing assumptions as to how future organizational events will unfold.

∙

∙

∙

∙

∙

∙

comprehensive future planning of operational and short-run HR demand

multiple-predictor estimates

several plausible outcomes developed based on the premise that we have certain knowledge of future events

cause and effect events linked together

brainstorming sessions with line managers and HR managers to develop scenarios

combined expert view of the workforce over the next five years formulated∙

works backwards to identify key change points

79. Scenario planning as a forecasting method is most often used to develop organizational strategy. A primary

strength of scenario planning as a strategy-setting tool is that it encourages participants to develop strongly

shared mental models of future organizational states. Scenario planning is a method for imagining future

possible conditions in which the organization might operate. As a technique, it requires participants to challenge

existing assumptions and to generate vivid pictures of possible future states.

The general process of scenario planning is as follows:

1. State the question about the future state of the firm or environment. For example, “How many households

will own an electric car in 10 years”?

2. Generate a list of factors that are likely to influence the outcome in question. It is often useful to perform a

SWOT analysis that takes into account factors such as the economy, the political landscape, society, and the

impact of technology.

3. Sort the factors into naturally occurring groups and rank the groups according to their importance to the

change initiative and the ability of the firm to control the factor. Factors that the firm has less ability to control

should receive higher rankings.

4. Select the two groups of factors that are likely to have the strongest and most unpredictable impact on the

question. Create four quadrants (see Figure 5.5) by stretching one group along a continuum from its extreme

negative condition to its extreme positive condition on the x-axis and the other group along a continuum from

its extreme low to high conditions on the y-axis.

5. Name and describe in story form each of the four worlds in the four resulting quadrants.

6. Suggest the skills, competencies, and other organizational requirements that would be necessary for the firm

to be able to operate in each of these four worlds.

7. Generate a demand forecast necessary to fulfill the firm’s requirements in each of the four worlds.

80. ANS:

∙

historical relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required by the organization

(demand for labour)

∙

quantitative forecasting technique

∙

reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the number of employees required by the

organization (the demand for labour)

Steps in conducting a trend analysis:

1. Select the appropriate business/operational index.

2. Track the business index over time.

3. Track the workforce size over time.

4. Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the workforce size.

5. Calculate the forecasted demand for labour.

Common operational indices:

1. sales level

2. number of units produced

3. number of clients serviced

4. production hours (direct labour hours

–

DLH; indirect labour hours

–

ILH)