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CHAPTER 5 — THE HR FORECASTING PROCESS
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1.What type of forecasting is concerned with changes in the external environment?
a. | process-based |
b. | event-based |
c. | internal-based |
d. | transaction-based |
ANS: B BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
2.What is the relationship between the accuracy of prediction and the number of forecasting techniques used?
a. | direct |
b. | indirect |
c. | null |
d. | inverse |
ANS:ABLM: HIGHER ORDERREF:Page 119
3.If an organization does not incorporate information from the external environment, what impact will this have on HR forecasting?
a. | Lack of specificity in HR forecasting from top management. |
b. | Elimination of personnel policies that are irrelevant to competitors. |
c. | Incompatibility between organizational goals and HR planning. |
d. | Avoidance of producing environmental scans with organizational input. |
ANS:CBLM: HIGHER ORDERREF:Page 121
4.Which of the following is NOT a categorization of forecasting models according to the textbook?
a. | time-series models |
b. | cause-and-effect models |
c. | judgemental models |
d. | prediction models |
ANS:DBLM: REMEMBERREF:Pages 128
5.Which of the following would NOT be considered a “designated group?
a. | Immigrants |
b. | Women |
c. | Aboriginals |
d. | disabled people |
ANS: A BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 147
6.According to the University of Sheffield’s Effectiveness Program, which item was the most important influence on the organization’s bottom-line performance?
a. | technology |
b. | competitive strategy |
c. | research and development |
d. | people management |
ANS: D BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 124
7.If an organization wished to conduct HR forecasting for its operating cycle, which of the following time horizons should it use?
a. | current forecast |
b. | short-run forecast |
c. | medium-run forecast |
d. | long-run forecast |
ANS: A BLM: REMEMBER REF: Pages 124–125
8.What type of forecasting is concerned with tracking internal change instituted by the organization’s managers?
a. | process-based |
b. | event-based |
c. | scenario-based |
d. | transaction-based |
ANS: D BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
9.According to the textbook, which of the following is NOT considered a useful global HR planning consideration that would encourage employee collaboration?
a. | Maximize the use of technology. |
b. | Take advantage of differences in time zones. |
c. | Promote a multi-lingual workforce. |
d. | Use an HR Management System to eliminate duplicate costs. |
ANS: C BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 119
10.With respect to HR forecasting, when would it be suitable to hire external candidates instead of considering internal recruits?
a. | If the organization can hire external candidates for a lower salary than internal recruits. |
b. | If there is a novel, creative work process that differs substantially from current practice. |
c. | If HR forecasters predict higher attrition and retirement in the short-term |
d. | If none of the internal recruits are willing to switch jobs. |
ANS: B BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 123
11.What HR concept is defined as several HR estimates based on a variety of assumptions?
a. | projection |
b. | prediction |
c. | predetermination |
d. | presumption |
ANS: A BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
12.With reference to HR forecasting, how is the envelope analogy used?
a. | It is a visual depiction used for HR communications. |
b. | It projects current HR supply and demand. |
c. | It sets the upper and lower boundaries for HR projections. |
d. | It is an estimate for a variety of HR assumptions. |
ANS: C BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 125
13.Which of the following is NOT a source of external HR supply for an organization?
a. | current staff |
b. | competitors’ employees |
c. | unemployed persons |
d. | university students |
ANS: A BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 126
14.What is the first element an organization needs to consider in deriving its external supply calculation for HR forecasting?
a. | To meet its replacement needs. |
b. | To consider the change component. |
c. | To predict attrition and retirements. |
d. | To forecast HR demand accurately. |
ANS: A BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 129
15.Which of the following is NOT a reason that an organization will use external labour?
a. | External candidates can introduce competitive insights and new operational techniques. |
b. | The organization wants to expand its operations through increased labour efficiency. |
c. | External candidates may be less expensive to hire relative to collective agreements. |
d. | The organization wants to shake up the organization with external candidates. |
ANS:ABLM: HIGHER ORDERREF:Pages 127
16.What type of forecasting occurs in terms of two- to five-year segments?
a. | current |
b. | short-run |
c. | medium-run |
d. | long-run |
ANS: C BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
17.Which concept refers to a prohibition on all external recruiting activities?
a. | attrition |
b. | hiring freeze |
c. | down-sizing |
d. | HR surplus |
ANS: B BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 131
18.What is created when the HR demand exceeds the current personnel resources available in the organization’s workforce?
a. | HR surplus |
b. | HR shortage |
c. | HR scarcity |
d. | HR supply |
ANS: B BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 130
19.What is the external HR supply, given that the organization has a workforce of 500, its historical annual replacement/loss rate is 7 percent, and its corporate downsizing policy will reduce staffing levels by 10 percent? Round to the closest whole number.
a. | -85 |
b. | -15 |
c. | 15 |
d. | 85 |
ANS: B BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Pages 129
External supply = 500 (0.07-0.10) = 500 (-0.03) = -15
20.How can organizations reduce their HR costs?
a. | if they use contingent workers whenever possible |
b. | if they pay overtime only when necessary |
c. | if they ensure that there are more than enough employees |
d. | if they take a long-run planning approach to HR issues |
ANS: D BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 120
21.Given the effects of the Fukushima nuclear disaster caused by the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami on the external environment, what type of forecasting would HR professionals utilize to incorporate catastrophic circumstances and their consequences?
a. | transaction-based forecasting |
b. | process-based forecasting |
c. | event-based forecasting |
d. | critical-based forecasting |
ANS: C BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 118
22.Which of the following external factors affect HR forecasting?
a. | managerial appraisals |
b. | competitor’s HR policies |
c. | executive career planning |
d. | training and development |
ANS: B BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
23.How many years are typically used for a medium-run HR forecast?
a. | 1 to 2 years |
b. | 2 to 3 years |
c. | 3 to 5 years |
d. | 5 to 10 years |
ANS: C BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
24.Why are some individuals categorized into designated groups?
a. | because they are exceptionally skilled and need challenges |
b. | because of their fragile emotional states |
c. | because they require special attention |
d. | because they need to be protected from discrimination |
ANS: D BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 122
25.What techniques do HR managers use to encourage employee collaboration for global forecasting?
a. | Minimize use of technology like e-mail and teleconferencing. |
b. | Schedule work to take advantage of time zone differences. |
c. | Eliminate all duplicating personnel for greater efficiency. |
d. | Incorporate specific cultures related to contingent workers. |
ANS: B BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 119
26.Which of the following is NOT related to attrition?
a. | Retirements |
b. | voluntary turnover |
c. | Terminations |
d. | Deaths |
ANS: C BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 131
27.Which of the following is NOT an internal factor that will affect HR demand?
a. | downsizing management |
b. | vacations and sick days |
c. | planned redundancy |
d. | training and development |
ANS: D BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 121
28.Models used in HR forecasting typically fall into one of three categories. What do cause-and-effect models assume?
a. | that there is an ongoing relationship between independent and dependent variables |
b. | that the extrapolated trends will most influence future supply and demand |
c. | that the time horizon used for the models is most conducive to short-term forecasts |
d. | that the subjective judgment of experts supports the forecasts |
ANS: A BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 128
29.What is the external HR supply, given that the organization has a workforce of 1 500, its historical annual replacement/loss rate is 5 percent, and its desired future growth rate is 12 percent? Round to closest whole number.
a. | -255 |
b. | -105 |
c. | 105 |
d. | 255 |
ANS: D BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 129
External Supply = 1 500 (0.05+0.12) = 255
30.Which concept refers to a proposed sequence of events with its own set of assumptions and associated program details?
a. | contingency plans |
b. | Predictions |
c. | Projections |
d. | Scenarios |
ANS: D BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125TRUE/FALSE
1.Transaction-based forecasting is concerned with changes in the external environment.
ANS: F BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 118
(tracks internal changes)
2.HR forecasting is more reactive than proactive.
ANS: F BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 118
(more proactive)
3.HR supply is defined as the organization’s projected requirement for human resources.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 121
(HR demand)
4.An advantage to internal recruitment is that the employee does not need extensive socialization within the organization.
ANS: T BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 123
5.A serious problem develops in some organizations when the personnel planning process becomes connected to the overall business goals of the organization.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 121
(disconnected from)
6.Effective HR forecasting focuses on a comparison between the organization’s current stock of workforce knowledge, skills, and abilities and the numbers and skill competencies desired in the workforce in the future.
ANS: T BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 119
7.HR forecasting is referred to as the “heart” of the HR planning process.
ANS: T BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
8.The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that by 2020, there will be a labour shortage of more than one million workers.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
(950 000)
9.HR demand requirements must be found from either internal or external supplies of personnel.
ANS:TBLM: REMEMBERREF:Pages 128
10.Forecasting in terms of two to five years represents a short-run forecast.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
(medium-run forecast)
11.Forecasting is an accurate reflection of future states and is an activity that strongly favours quantitative and easily codified techniques.
ANS: F BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 119
(an approximation of possible future states)
12.The forecasting term “envelope” is synonymous with the term “projection.”
ANS: T BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
13.A projection incorporates several HR estimates based on few assumptions.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
(a variety of assumptions)
14.HR forecasting will determine the supply of human resources but not the demand.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
(both supply and demand)
15.Male university graduates who are disabled would constitute a “designated group” with respect to hiring in Canada.
ANS: T BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Page 122
16.According to the textbook, projections from many institutions have shown that it is going to be a “buyers” market in the not-too-distant future with respect to acquiring talent in Canada.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
(“sellers” market)
17.Forecasting activity for HR planning can be subdivided into two categories: transaction-based and event-based.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
(also process-based forecasting)
18.A projection is a single numerical estimate of HR requirements associated with a specific time horizon and set of assumptions.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 125
(definition of prediction)
19.Effective HR forecasting relies on obtaining a fine balance between global and local control of the process.
ANS: T BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 119
20.Persons who have invisible disabilities would constitute a “designated group” with respect to hiring in Canada.
ANS: T BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 122
21.Worksharing is a provincial government program that aims to help organizations mitigate temporary layoffs through a redistribution of work, earnings, and leisure time.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 131
(federal government)
22.Attrition is the process of reducing an HR surplus by allowing the size of the workforce to decline naturally due to lay-offs and other forms of involuntary turnover.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 131
(voluntary turnover)
23.HR shortage = HR demand < HR internal supply.
ANS: F BLM: REMEMBER REF: Pages 130
(HR shortage = HR demand > HR internal supply)
SHORT ANSWER
1.Identify the THREE different categories of HR forecasting activity and their relationship to the HR planning process.
ANS:
BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 118
2.What is HR forecasting? Briefly describe the advantages that accrue to organizations from instituting effective HR forecasting procedures.
ANS:
Constitutes the heart of the HR planning process, and can be defined as ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by determining the demand for and supply of human resources now and in the future.
Benefits of HR Forecasting —
BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Pages 119–121
3.Identify and describe the key personnel categories that are given the most attention by forecasters.
ANS:
a. Specialist/Technical/Professional
b. Employment Equity Designated Group Membership
c. Managerial and Executive Personnel
d. Recruits
BLM: REMEMBER REF: Pages 122–123
4.List the FIVE steps in HR forecasting in their appropriate order.
ANS:
BLM: REMEMBER REF: Page 123
5.List and briefly describe the HR programs that can be implemented to address HR surpluses AND HR shortages.
ANS:
HR shortages are addressed by:
HR surpluses are addressed through:
BLM: HIGHER ORDER REF: Pages 129–131
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